Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
