Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
